A historian with a remarkable track record for predicting the outcomes of U.S. presidential elections has revealed who he believes will win in 2024.
The Nostradamus of Elections
Professor Allan Lichtman of American University has accurately predicted every presidential win since President Reagan’s reelection in 1984. Often referred to as the ‘Nostradamus’ of elections, Lichtman draws comparisons to the 16th-century French astrologer and reputed seer who allegedly predicted events like the Great Fire of London, the rise of Napoleon (and Hitler), and the fall of the Twin Towers on September 11.
Lichtman’s Latest Prediction
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, Lichtman has taken to social media to share his current forecast.
Biden’s Withdrawal
On July 21, President Joe Biden announced he was ending his re-election campaign. In a written statement, the 81-year-old expressed that it had been his ‘greatest honor’ to serve but that his withdrawal was ‘in the best interest of my party and the country.’ This abrupt conclusion to his political career followed growing concerns within the Democrat party about his frailty.
After dropping out of the presidential race, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, 59, who has the backing of her party.
Kamala Harris’ Historic Candidacy
Harris is the first female vice president and the highest-ranking female official in U.S. history. She is also the first Black American and South Asian American vice president, per the White House.
Harris is up against Republican candidate Donald Trump, who served as president of the U.S. from 2017 to 2021.
As both candidates work to fortify their support, new polls suggest the pair are tied in several battleground states, according to NBC News. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris held a marginal one-percentage point lead over Trump, with the vice president leading 43% to Trump’s 42%.
Voter Registration Surge
According to the nonpartisan voter registration site Vote.org, voter registrations surged after it was announced Harris was in the running. CEO Andrea Hailey posted on X (formerly Twitter):
“We registered nearly 40,000 voters – an almost 700% daily increase in new registration. That’s the largest number of new voters registered over a 48-hour period we’ve seen this entire cycle.”
Republican Vice Presidential Nominee Controversy
In the build-up to the election, it’s been suggested that Trump could lose valuable votes due to the Republican nominee for vice president, J.D. Vance. After the 78-year-old announced the Ohio senator as his running mate, Vance’s past comments resurfaced.
In 2021, he questioned why some leading politicians, including Harris, do not have children. At the time, Vance said (per the BBC):
“The entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children. How does it make any sense we’ve turned our country over to people who don’t really have a direct stake in it?”
He added that the country was being run ‘by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too.’
During a recent appearance on The Megyn Kelly Show, Vance defended his resurfaced comments, stating:
“Obviously it was a sarcastic comment. People are focusing so much on the sarcasm and not on the substance of what I actually said. The substance of what I said, Megyn – I’m sorry, it’s true. This is about criticizing the Democratic Party for becoming anti-family and anti-children.”
Lichtman’s Prediction Model
Amid the build-up to the election, Lichtman has shared an update on his complex prediction model. The model, or ‘keys’ as Lichtman calls them, consists of 13 true/false questions and a decision rule: if six or more keys go against the White House party, they lose. Otherwise, they win.
According to the American University website, keys include party mandate, short and long-term economy, policy changes, and social unrest. With less than 100 days until the election, Lichtman says the keys lean in Harris’ favor.
Taking to X, he writes:
“Biden’s withdrawal cost Democrats the Incumbency Key on my 13 Keys to the White House prediction system. But the excitement generated by his endorsement of VP Harris makes it very likely that they retain the Contest Key as she becomes the consensus nominee.”
The professor told C-SPAN (per Daily Mail):
“I have not made a final prediction. I’ve said I will make it after the Democratic convention. But I have said for months, and I continue to say a lot would have to go wrong for Democrats to lose. That could happen, but a lot would have to change.”
